Lucky 13th?

Fearless Forecast on
PBA's Fiesta Conference Finals 2010

To make this short and straight to the point (because I still have to read up on Bernas' Consti haha), I predict this Finals series to be won by the Aces if it goes the distance or by the Beermen if it only goes until five. The shorter the series, the more it will favor the Beermen. The longer it goes, the higher chances of Alaska snatching their 13th championship.

ACES in SEVEN

The Aces have the following factors going for them:

Character. This season alone, the Aces have won Game5 against crowd favorite Ginebra in the Quaterfinals and Game7 against league-leader Talk N' Text in the Semis. And they managed to do these amazing feats without Willier Miller in their roster. This goes to show what the team is made of. From LA Tenorio to Larry Fonacier to Jeffrey Cariaso to Reynel Hugnatan to Tony  Dela Cruz--these players are winners, and come clutch time they will surely step up to the plate to deliver the points and composure when it matters the most. It's not always about skill. It's all about heart.

Coach Tim Cone. Being the second winningest coach in PBA history (Baby Dalupan being the winningest) tells a lot about Tim Cone's reliable system. He has guided the Aces to a Grand Slam in the '90s with Abarrientos, Lastismosa and Cariaso. And this season, he managed to steer the Aces to the Finals despite the very worthy adversaries in Ginebra and Talk N Text, the absence of Miller and the presence of underrated players. He alone could spell the difference for the Aces.

Chemistry. Except for Cyrus Baguio and Diamon Simpson, most of the Aces have been playing together for around three years already. They have learned and mastered Coach Tim Cone's triangle offense, which, as we have seen in Phil Jackson's system with the Lakers, can be deadly. DeVance and Thoss have blossomed into the big men the team trained them to be--good passers, steady shooters and good post defenders. Along with Simpson, these big men remain to be key points in the Aces' traingle offense. 

Defense. I believe the Aces is the second best defensive team in the league this season--with Derby Ace ranking first. They play a very solid team defense that the Beermen obviously lack. As the basketball cliche goes, Offense wins games; defense wins championships. 

With all these said, the Aces still has weaknesses to work on/worry about. Fatigue may become a factor in a seven-game series. Alaska have been playing games non-stop since the quarterfinals. The stamina of the players, and even the coaches, will be put to the test as the series gets longer. Along with fatigue are the injuries. Two vital players in the Alaska rotation were injured in the Game7 win over TNT last Wednesday--Sonny Thoss stepped on someone's foot while Tony Dela Cruz got a elbow on the throat. If these players miss the entire series, the scales would certainly favor the Beermen, as the Aces obviously lack the deep bench SMB has. But knowing Coach Tim Cone and his system, he will find ways to remedy these weaknesses. I foresee Fonacier, Mark Borboran and Joe DeVance having break out games in the series.

BEERMEN in FIVE

Although I outrightly go for the Aces in this series, I foresee the possibility of the Beermen snatching the championship because of these factors:

Talent. Arguably, the Beermen is one of the most talented teams, if not the most talented, this season. With a prolific import in Gabe Freeman, who also played last Fiesta Conference, a steady bunch of veterans in Hontiveros, Racela, Siegle, Pena and Ildefonso, talented acquisitions in Santos, Cabagnot, Yeo and Miranda, the vast improvement of Washington, and a deep bench that boasts of Villanueva, Pennisi and Tugade (who could easily be a starter in another team), the Beermen look poised to win the championship. At least, on paper. If the Aces lax on defense, expect the Beermen to go on a scoring rampage.

Bench. As I have pointed out, the Beermen has a very deep bench. Just imagine Coach Siot Tanquincen having the luxury of pulling Danny Siegle and Lordy Tugade from the bench at any juncture in the game. Almost all of the players have had championship experience, too--albeit in different teams. Yeo and Miranda have won one with the Realtors. Hontiveros, Ildefonso, Siegle, Racela and Pena have won numerous titles with SMB.

I see two things the Beermen has to work on to improve their chances of winning the championship. First is team chemistry. Although, individually, the players are talented, basketball is still a team sport. It takes five players on court to make things work. The recent acquisitions of Cabagnot, Yeo, Miranda and Santos and evenTugade during the off-season may become a factor for the Beermen. Second is foul trouble. The Beermen, as I've seen in their past few games, have a penchant for getting into foul trouble very early in the game; or into penalty very early in the quarter. Freeman and Pena have to manage their fouls well considering how good ballhandlers/inside players Fonacier, Tenorio and DeVance are. 

And lastly, the Beermen needs to have the heart to go for the win. Yes, the players are all well-established in their own rights (I believe they have won most of the individual awards this Conference). Somehow Coach Siot has to find the proper motivation for the team to have the desire to win the championship.

As with any forecast, these predictions are not cast in stone. Some of them may be wrong, some may be right. But one thing I'm sure of is that this championship (PBA's 100th) will be wayyy more worth watching than last Conference's.

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sidenote:

Matchups to watch out for are:

LA Tenorio v. Olsen Racela/Alex Cabagnot/Jonas Villanueva/Dennis Miranda

Larry Fonacier v. Joseph Yeo

Gabe Freeman v. Diamon Simpson

Joe DeVance/Tony Dela Cruz v. Arwind Santos/Jay Washington